Spring training is a time for clichés. The slate is clean. Hope springs eternal. All 30 teams are tied for the best record in baseball.
It’s nice to get caught up in that kind of stuff, but the reality is that only half of the teams in the MLB are actively trying to win this season. And of that, only a handful seem to have a legitimate shot at hoisting the trophy.
According to Sports Odds History, the last time a team with Opening Day odds longer than 20/1 won the World Series was in 2015, when the Kansas City Royals took home the hardware as 33/1 outsiders. But even that result wasn’t all that shocking as the Royals surprisingly won the AL pennant in 2014, so it’s not like they came out of nowhere.
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Given the state of the MLB — it’s a league of “haves and have-nots” right now — it’s hard to envision a path to success for a long-shot winner in 2023. But if you are going to take one stab on a Cinderella, you should focus on the path rather than the team itself.
For example, the Baltimore Orioles had themselves an immensely encouraging 2022 season that saw them hang around the wild-card race after years of ineptitude. It may be tempting to back the Orioles at 66/1 to back up that performance in 2023, but they’ll be playing in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. The Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays are the second, third, and fifth favorites, respectively, to win the American League pennant, so just competing with their division rivals seems like a big ask of the O’s.
You can make similar arguments against other tempting long shots like the Miami Marlins — who have to compete with the Mets, Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East — the Texas Rangers — who need to do the same with the Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, and Los Angeles Angels — and the Arizona Diamondbacks — who will be going up against the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants.
The American League Central is wide open, with the Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins projected to duke it out for the title. The top of the division is so pedestrian that perhaps you can throw some money on a triple-digit long shot like the Detroit Tigers or Royals and get a sweat out of it, but the Tigers, who were a relatively trendy long shot last year, finished with 66 wins in 2022 and the Royals were worse.
The NL Central does look like it could be open for some chaos, though.
The St. Louis Cardinals are odds-on to win the division at -120, but their projections are pretty modest. The Cards have an over/under of 89.5 wins, and PECOTA projects them to finish second to the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew are 40/1 to win the World Series on FanDuel, which is nearly double the odds of the Cardinals at 22/1.
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Milwaukee’s offense will likely need to over-perform for the team to be a true contender, but the pitching staff does have some serious upside with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, and Wade Miley. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA project the Brewers to finish with the fewest runs allowed in their division.
Finding a long shot in the World Series market has been a fool’s errand for almost a decade now, but of all the potential upstarts, the Brewers seem to have the most upside, and the path to the playoffs isn’t all that daunting.
A lot can change between now and Opening Day, but the Brewers are extremely tempting at the 40/1 price.
