Happy Friday!
We have a full board of selections on PrizePicks with all 30 MLB teams in action this evening.
Let’s take a look at some of the top picks on the board to get our weekend started off right.
We begin with an emerging right-handed starting pitcher for the Minnesota Twins.
Joe Ryan more than 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Ryan appears to be in the midst of a true breakout, making a leap forward from a very solid season in 2022.
He has posted a sparkling 2.16 ERA and an equally impressive 3.07 SIERA through his first eight starts of 2023.
His strikeout rate sits at 29.7% and ranks 8th among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this season, while his 3.6% walk rate ranks fourth among that group.
Both represent stark improvements on the skills he displayed last year.
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Digging deeper on Ryan, we find a distinct difference in pitch mix from what he deployed last season.
He has ditched an ineffective changeup in favor of a new splitter that he is throwing 27.4% of the time, a rate that trails only his four-seam fastball.
The splitter has generated a 22.4% Whiff Rate and 16.5% PutAway Rate, but most importantly, has given him a weapon to neutralize left-handed hitters that he lacked last season.
Ryan still strikes out righties at a much higher rate than lefties, but the good news is he is projected to face just three lefties in the Angels lineup today.
His strikeout rate against righties has been an elite 35.5% this season.
He has posted more than 6.5 strikeouts in five of his eight starts this season, and I like him to do it again today against a right-handed heavy Angels lineup.
Zac Gallen more than 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Gallen is putting together another excellent campaign with a 2.35 ERA and 2.77 SIERA through his first nine starts.
His 32.1% strikeout rate ranks fourth in MLB among qualified starting pitchers.
He has seen his swinging strike rate increase to 13.0% this season (up from 10.1% last season).
He is throwing his curveball about 5% more than last year and generating an elite 43.5% Whiff rate with the pitch.
His matchup today comes against the Pirates in PNC Park.
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The Pirates offense sits right around league average with a .317 wOBA, 97 wRC+ and 22.8% strikeout rate.
They project to send six lefties to the plate against Gallen, who has actually had reverse splits in his career.
He has struck out about 3% more lefties when compared to the righties he has faced since the beginning of last season.
Gallen has struck out more than 6.5 batters in six of his nine starts this season, and he finished with 6 strikeouts in two of the starts where he fell short.
His elite strikeout rate should help him dominate an average Pirates offense and give us more than 6.5 strikeouts today.
Ryan Mountcastle more than 1.5 Total Bases
Mountcastle has posted strong numbers against left-handed pitchers in his career, but he is absolutely destroying them so far this season.
He has 10 extra-base hits in just 60 plate appearances, posting an elite .430 wOBA and .351 ISO.
He gets a matchup with Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi who has seen his strikeout rate fall to a slightly-below-average 22.9% this season.
Kikuchi has allowed an 11.1% Barrel rate this year, along with 43.7% hard contact and a 42.9% fly ball rate.
He has given up 2.38 HR/9 and 46 hits allowed in 41.2 innings.
These are all numbers that suggest Mountcastle has an excellent chance for either multiple hits or an extra-base hit today, which would allow us to cash in on more than 1.5 total bases.
