Betting on the hard-hitting Blue Jays is fun.
Lucky for us, there’s value on Toronto’s matchup Tuesday with Houston.
Over the past two weeks, the Blue Jays are slugging over .500 against right-handed pitching, posting the highest wRC+ in MLB against the right side during that stretch (141).
Meanwhile, the Astros profile, project, and perform better against left-handed pitching.
So, on paper, Toronto has a massive advantage in a matchup between two right-handed starting pitchers.
Blue Jays vs. Astros prediction
(7:07 p.m. ET.)
Kevin Gausman is a perennial AL Cy Young candidate.
He’s working with a 2.76 ERA and 3.32 expected ERA this season behind the league’s best four-seam and split-finger combinations.
Hunter Brown, 24, is impressive, but his numbers are about a half-run worse (3.61 ERA, 3.67 expected ERA).
He also grades out slightly worse than Gausman by FanGraphs’ Pitching+ model, which “uses the physical characteristics, location, and count of each pitch to try to judge the overall quality of the pitcher’s process.”
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It’s tough to discern which team has the bullpen advantage, but Toronto’s has been better recently.
Add in home-field advantage, and the Blue Jays are a great bet on Tuesday.
Blue Jays vs. Astros pick
THE PLAY: Blue Jays -124 (BetRivers)
