Happy Monday!
While this is typically the least favorite day for many, we have 10 baseball games on tap to help ease the pain of a new work week.
The PrizePicks lobby can often be a tad overwhelming, so my advice is to pick a few categories that you have a strong grasp on and stick to those.
My favorites are generally centered around the pitchers, so that’s where my picks will be coming from for tonight’s slate.
Grayson Rodriguez less than 5.0 strikeouts
Most projection models and simulation models have Rodriguez for slightly more than five strikeouts tonight, but I like the other side of this projection.
While he does have a 27% strikeout rate this season, he also has a 10% walk rate and some potential regression coming his way in the second half of the season.
His xERA (expected ERA based on Statcast data) is above 6.00 and he draws one of the worst possible matchups.
The Dodgers are second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, they draw a lot of walks and don’t strike out at a particularly high rate.
Drew Smyly more than 17.5 pitching outs
Smyly hasn’t been in the best of form over the last couple of months, but his advanced metrics suggest better results moving forward.
He’s had a little bit of bad luck and a string of difficult matchups, but still owns a 4.15 xERA on the season.
Tonight he squares off against the Nationals at home.
This is a solid matchup on paper, as Washington is a mediocre team against left-handed pitching and on the season, the Nats have only drawn walks 7.5% of the time.
The wind is also blowing in from right tonight, which is always a positive for pitchers at Wrigley Field.
Miles Mikolas more than 16.5 pitching outs
Mikolas doesn’t have the most eye-popping statistics as a pitcher.
On the season, he owns a 4.88 xERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%.
However, he rarely gives up walks (5%) and he is one of the best at getting quick outs.
When it comes to PrizePicks, we don’t need to worry about strikeouts or runs allowed, at least not with this projection.
Mikolas has recorded at least 17 outs in six of his last seven starts and now gets to face the Marlins at home.
Miami is 24th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Sonny Gray more than 6.0 strikeouts
The Mariners have played well this season, but they are an offense that I like to pick on when it comes to strikeout projections.
As a team, they have a 25.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, which is the third-highest mark in baseball.
Gray is quietly having a solid season, posting a 3.90 xERA with a strikeout rate of 24%.
He generally pitches deep into games, which should help his strikeout chances this evening.
